Xi Jinping’s Mideast Trip to Push “One Belt One Road”

The Chinese president Xi Jinping has recently completed a three-nation tour in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Iran, offering tens of billions in loans and investments. These three countries are strategically located on the routes of the new silk roads that China is trying to revive, also known as “One Belt, One Road.”

MiddleEastMapAccording to a Reuters article, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei told President Xi Jinping during the visit that “Iranians never trusted the West…. That’s why Tehran seeks cooperation with more independent countries” (like China).

Xi certainly wants to cash in on this distrust. The two countries agreed to increase bilateral trade to $600 billion in the next 10 years. Among many agreements signed are 17 memorandums to kick-start “a maritime Silk Road of the 21st century,” one of the two routes of the “One Belt, One Road” program. Continue reading

Reports of the Chinese Economy’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

I was baffled by why some people think a 6.9% growth for a $10 trillion economy is such bad news. The headlines were occupied by China’s economic slowdown, and what a catastrophe it might bring to the world.

quote-Mark-Twain-the-reports-of-my-death-have-been-88406To me, slower growth is long expected. It means that the Chinese economy is maturing. Even when I interviewed people in China about 10 years ago, no one had any illusion that the Chinese economy would continue its breakneck speed forever. “At some point,” many told me, “the economy will slow down.”

Now we are at that “point.” I am actually surprised that the high growth period lasted as long as it did. Yes, the volatile stock market was nerve-racking. The industrial overcapacity and high level of debt are alarming. But the government still has tools to address these problems.

For example, the New Silk Roads, or “One Belt, One Road” program, can be a way to help absorb China’s overcapacity in construction and steel. American companies are jumping on the bandwagon. Continue reading

China’s Triple Wins: The New Silk Roads

I recently came across an interesting article by Financial Times, China’s Great Game: Road to a New Empire. It describes China’s new Silk Road program – “a modern version of the ancient trade route,” and how it has become China’s signature foreign policy initiative under President Xi Jinping.

NewSilkRoadThe New Silk Road program consists two routes, known as “One Belt, One Road” (see the map). The land route is called “the Silk Road Economic Belt,” linking central Asia, Russia and Europe. The sea route has an odd name: “the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” and goes through the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Thus, “One Belt, One Road.”

If successful, the New Silk Roads could be the largest economic development scheme on the face of the earth. The Financial Times article compares it to the US-led Marshall Plan after WWII:

If the sum total of China’s commitments are taken at face value, the new Silk Road is set to become the largest programme of economic diplomacy since the US-led Marshall Plan for postwar reconstruction in Europe, covering dozens of countries with a total population of over 3bn people.

Indeed, if successful, the New Silk Road program will be triple wins for China. Continue reading

Will China Challenge U.S. Global Dominance?

Will China challenge U.S. global dominance? If you had asked me this question two years ago, I would have said “definitely NO.” But now, I am not so sure.

In an article “A Bigger, Bolder China in 2016,” Jeremy Page, Beijing-based Wall Street Journal reporter, wrote:

With Beijing holding the rotating presidency of the Group of 20 nations next year [2016], Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to press ahead with his drive to challenge U.S. dominance of the global financial and security order.

South-China-SeaPage listed a number of issues: the South China Sea, cybersecurity attacks, Taiwan, and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB). None are new, but any one of them could potentially spin out of control and result in more tension between the U.S. and China.

In the case of the South China Sea, China hasn’t stopped the constructions on the disputed islands. Continue reading

Why Washington Should Embrace Beijing’s “New Type of Major-power Relationship”

At last week’s APEC summit in Manila, President Barack Obama sharply criticized China for building artificial islands in the disputed waters of the South China Sea. But instead of calling out China, Obama should have taken the opportunity to reconsider Chinese President Xi Jinping’s proposal for a “new type of major-power relationship.”

ApecObamaThe Obama administration was concerned when Xi first raised this concept in 2012 when he was still China’s vice president. Does that mean that China expects to share power equally with the United States? What signal would that send to U.S. allies?

In his 2013 meeting with Obama, Xi Jinping defined the “new type of major-power relationship” as “no confrontation, mutual respect, and win-win cooperation.” This proposition marks a break away from the zero-sum game mentality, and serves American interests as well as the interests of the world.

However, all Xi Jinping’s benevolent messages such as “win-win,” “shared future,” and “interdependence” are falling on deaf ears. Americans tend to view anything the Chinese say with suspicion, perhaps for good reason. China has repeatedly claimed that it will never pursue hegemony. Yet, the Communist Party itself is the hegemon within China. Beijing has a lot of work to do in order to convince the international community that it would behave differently on the world stage.

For the U.S., however, embracing the “new type of major-power relationship” does not diminish American leadership, nor does it mean that the U.S. needs to share power with China equally.

Continue reading