“The Chinese Dream Is to Leave China”

When I wrote my book The Chinese Dream eight years ago, I observed an extreme optimism and anxiety among the newly-bred middle class in China.

middle class mediocreAt that time, although many were anxious, there was still a fair amount of optimism. Even a Pew Global Attitudes Survey said that more than two-thirds of Chinese expected their personal position to improve in the coming years.

Only a few years later, things have changed substantially. According to a New York Times article, middle class Chinese are anxious to move their money out of the country. Although the government has tightened the control on capital flight, people find ways to get around the restriction. The article indicates that in the last year and half, individuals and companies have moved about $1 trillion out of the country.

And, more people are trying to leave the country:

In fiscal 2014, 76,089 Chinese were awarded permanent residency status in the United States, up by 4,291 from the previous year. Of the 10,692 investment visas provided by the United States in the 2014 financial year, 9,128 went to Chinese nationals, up about 30 percent from the previous year. Meanwhile, 88 percent of Australian “significant investor visas” have been given to Chinese citizens.

More and more Chinese students are studying overseas and many of them are looking to stay abroad:

In the 2014-15 academic year, at least 304,040 Chinese students were studying in the United States, up about 110,000 from 2011-12.

The economic slowdown has certainly caused anxiety. But lack of confidence in one’s own country goes far beyond economic reasons. As I have said and written many times, without the rule of law, the Chinese middle class will never feel secure in China.

This reminded me of a conversation I had with a professor in China early this year. While attending the Stanford+Connects event in Shanghai, I shared a taxi with a Italian professor who leads the China program at Zhejiang University. Naturally, we had a discussion about China. When he learned I wrote a book called The Chinese Dream, he asked what is the Chinese Dream, and what’s the difference between the Chinese Dream and American Dream. Before I elaborated, he said something that took my breath away:

“I think the American Dream is that everyone wants to go to America; and the Chinese Dream is that everyone wants to leave China.”

Reports of the Chinese Economy’s Death Have Been Greatly Exaggerated

I was baffled by why some people think a 6.9% growth for a $10 trillion economy is such bad news. The headlines were occupied by China’s economic slowdown, and what a catastrophe it might bring to the world.

quote-Mark-Twain-the-reports-of-my-death-have-been-88406To me, slower growth is long expected. It means that the Chinese economy is maturing. Even when I interviewed people in China about 10 years ago, no one had any illusion that the Chinese economy would continue its breakneck speed forever. “At some point,” many told me, “the economy will slow down.”

Now we are at that “point.” I am actually surprised that the high growth period lasted as long as it did. Yes, the volatile stock market was nerve-racking. The industrial overcapacity and high level of debt are alarming. But the government still has tools to address these problems.

For example, the New Silk Roads, or “One Belt, One Road” program, can be a way to help absorb China’s overcapacity in construction and steel. American companies are jumping on the bandwagon. Continue reading

China’s Middle Class Has Become a Major Pillar of Its Economy

The Chinese middle class, now estimated at more than half a billion strong, has become a key driver for the country’s economy.

ChineseConsumerIphone

The newly released data indicates that China’s retail sales grew more than 11 percent in 2015, despite economic slowdown. Consumer spending was one of the brightest spots in the Chinese economy, which is now $10 trillion in size, and registered a 6.9 percent growth last year.

A Bloomberg article, “Beyond the Headlines, Five Things to Watch in China’s GDP Report,” wrote:

Rapid income growth over the last decade has made Chinese consumers an increasingly powerful force, snapping up Apple iPhones, Tiffany diamonds and Toyota sedans.

Urban household incomes increased more than 8 percent, the new data shows. China also added 13 million jobs last year, exceeding the government target of 10 million, thanks to the booming service sector.

The unemployment rate was at 5.2 percent, about the same as the United States.

While investment in fixed assets slowed, the residential housing market is rebounding. The data also shows that “home-price recovery spread to more cities in December, especially smaller ones.”

All these indicate that the Chinese middle class is still growing, Continue reading

Is China’s Economy Running Away from President Xi Jinping?

China’s stock turmoil last week sent a shockwave across the globe. Many are concerned that the world’s second largest economy is on the verge of collapsing, and it may drag the rest of the world into a recession.

china-stocks-selloff-1024x576In an article by Wall Street Journal, The Consequences of China’s Stock Slide for Top Leaders in Beijing, Russell Leigh Moses pointed out that China’s top leaders have been sending conflicting messages regarding how to best handle the economy.

For example, the Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang, has argued that “China’s transition to a developed economy won’t happen while innovation and entrepreneurship are being stifled by too much bureaucracy; that central government oversight has given Chinese firms too little leeway in making difficult choices.”

However, China’s number one guy, President Xi Jinping, believes that “economic instability demands even tighter oversight of society, and that it’s the duty of the Communist Party to come to the rescue of citizens and companies…. Capitalism cares not for losers, only socialism can save China — and saving socialism means making sure that the Communist party is not only clean and loyal, but also willing and able to play the role of savior when the economy stumbles.” Continue reading

The Future of China’s Economy: Its Middle Class

Two Wall Street Journal articles caught my eye this morning: The Future of China’s Economy: Yuppies and Women Fuel China’s Fitness Craze. Both discuss the spending power of the Chinese middle class.

Trendy Chinese consumersIn the first article, author Laurie Burkitt wrote that China’s economy will be relying heavily on “yuppies” – young urban professionals:

According to a new study from the consultancy the Boston Consulting Group and Alibaba’s Aliresearch, richer, younger and tech-savvier Chinese will be the main drivers of growth in the country’s consumer economy going forward. Affluent consumers, shoppers under the age of 35 and Internet surfers will push China’s consumer market up to $6.5 trillion in sales by 2020.

This projection is based on GDP growth at only 5.5% (compared to nearly 7% currently). I am not surprised. For years, I have been saying that the rise of the Chinese middle class is the biggest story of our time. Continue reading

Helen Wang on CNN to Discuss the Chinese Middle Class

I was honored to appear on CNN to discuss the Chinese middle class and what it means to global business. Here is a clip of the show:

The show was filmed at the CNN studio in Hong Kong on September 1st. Other panelists were Jeff Waters, partner of Boston Consulting Group, and Professor Xiao Geng of Fung Global Institute.

I am glad that mainstream media have started to pay attention to this subject. As I have said for the last five years, the rise of the China’s middle class is the biggest story of our time because of its profound impact!

Apple Pay Is Not Innovative Compared to What’s Happening in China

With Apple’s fanfare announcement of Apple Pay on new iPhone6 and Apple Watch, Gary Rieschel of Qiming Ventures seemed unimpressed and said it was a non-event in China as Alipay and Tenpay had been doing exact that for years.

Watch the Silicon Dragon show:

Are we seeing a reversing tide when it comes to innovation in consumer and mobile sectors? Your comments are welcome.

The Rise of the New Global Middle Class

The global middle class will explode in the next fifteen years, growing from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 4.9 billion in 2030. About 66 percent will be in Asia Pacific, compared to only 7 percent in North America and 14 percent in Europe. New Asian Pacific consumers will wield nearly 60 percent of total purchasing power, double that of North America and Europe combined. This is a significant shift in economic power from West to East that hasn’t been seen in the last 300 years. Its impacts could dwarf the Industrial Revolution.

China and India will make the biggest waves in this surge of the new global middle class. In 2009, these two Asian countries comprised just over 5 percent of global middle class consumption; in 15 years, their share of global middle class consumption will increase to 41 percent or more.

What do you make of this? Comments are welcome.

SAIC Taking Wrong Approach to Build Its Brands

China’s number 1 auto maker, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. (SAIC), is setting up a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley to tap advanced technology for its automobile brands back home. As Rose Yu writes in the WSJ’s China Real Time blog:

Chinese car companies, including SAIC, could do with all the help they can get, as the majority of Chinese consumers prefer foreign-branded cars. Chinese domestic brands’ market share in the country’s passenger-vehicle market fell to 36.5% in May from 39.4% in the year-earlier period, the ninth-consecutive month of decline, according to data from a government-backed industry group.

“Building a brand is an arduous job,” said Chen Hong, Chairman of SAIC Motors. “Chinese car makers must go upscale, otherwise the situation will be worse.

“In terms of sales, SAIC is a big car company. But when it comes to core technologies, we are far from strong enough,” said Mr. Chen, who became chairman in May. “Silicon Valley houses a number of emerging-technology companies. Having a footprint there will help improve our innovation ability.”

But how could “having a footprint in Silicon Valley” help improve their innovation ability? It’s not like breathing the Silicon Valley air will automatically make a company more innovative. Money isn’t only the way to acquire new technologies. The best innovations happen where the problems need to be solved. SAIC doesn’t need to look farther than China to find these.