The Rise of the New Global Middle Class

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The global middle class will explode in the next fifteen years, growing from 1.8 billion in 2009 to 4.9 billion in 2030. About 66 percent will be in Asia Pacific, compared to only 7 percent in North America and 14 percent in Europe. New Asian Pacific consumers will wield nearly 60 percent of total purchasing power, double that of North America and Europe combined. This is a significant shift in economic power from West to East that hasn’t been seen in the last 300 years. Its impacts could dwarf the Industrial Revolution.

China and India will make the biggest waves in this surge of the new global middle class. In 2009, these two Asian countries comprised just over 5 percent of global middle class consumption; in 15 years, their share of global middle class consumption will increase to 41 percent or more.

What do you make of this? Comments are welcome.

SAIC Taking Wrong Approach to Build Its Brands

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China’s number 1 auto maker, Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp. (SAIC), is setting up a venture capital firm in Silicon Valley to tap advanced technology for its automobile brands back home. As Rose Yu writes in the WSJ’s China Real Time blog:

Chinese car companies, including SAIC, could do with all the help they can get, as the majority of Chinese consumers prefer foreign-branded cars. Chinese domestic brands’ market share in the country’s passenger-vehicle market fell to 36.5% in May from 39.4% in the year-earlier period, the ninth-consecutive month of decline, according to data from a government-backed industry group.

“Building a brand is an arduous job,” said Chen Hong, Chairman of SAIC Motors. “Chinese car makers must go upscale, otherwise the situation will be worse.

“In terms of sales, SAIC is a big car company. But when it comes to core technologies, we are far from strong enough,” said Mr. Chen, who became chairman in May. “Silicon Valley houses a number of emerging-technology companies. Having a footprint there will help improve our innovation ability.”

But how could “having a footprint in Silicon Valley” help improve their innovation ability? It’s not like breathing the Silicon Valley air will automatically make a company more innovative. Money isn’t only the way to acquire new technologies. The best innovations happen where the problems need to be solved. SAIC doesn’t need to look farther than China to find these.

Speaking at Carlsberg Global Leadership Conference

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I had the honor to speak at Carlsberg global leadership conference in Chongqing recently. The Danish brewing company has made heavy investments in Western China, betting on the growing Chinese middle class.

Every other year, the company brings its top CEOs and senior executives from around the world in a two-day meeting to re-focus its growth strategy. This is the first time that Carlsberg held its global leadership conference in China, or in Asia for that matter. This shows how important the China market is for multinationals such as Carlsberg.

As part of the two-day program, Carlsberg had a banquet party “China Night” on May 14th, where Chinese singers and dancers performed various traditional shows. My favorite is always the “face-changing” performance. In a Tibetan ethnic dance, I was pulled on the stage along with other Carlsberg executives and was dancing with the performers. That was a lot of fun!

Previously, I had an opportunity to speak at Procter & Gamble in Cincinnati on a similar subject as well.

CCTV Interview: Chinese Spring Festival

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I was interviewed on CCTV-America on Friday to discuss the gigantic human movement during the upcoming Chinese Spring Festival – 3.6 billion trips, according to an official estimate.

The Spring Festival, which will officially start on January 31, is the Chinese Lunar New Year. It usually lasts for at least two weeks. During this period, many businesses are closed, and people go home to visit their families or travel for vacation. It is like Christmas in this country.

China has over 260 million migrant workers. They will be going back to their hometowns or villages for the Chinese New Year. For upper middle class Chinese, they will be traveling to overseas. I have seen many Chinese coming to this country for vacation during the Spring Festival.

Still, 3.6 billion trips is a mind-boggling number. That means every single person, including infants and elders, will make 3 trips during the holidays, which seems very unlikely. Perhaps they have a different way to count trips.

Regardless, it is a good sign for the Chinese economy. The Chinese government wants China to move more toward domestic consumption. As Chinese have more income, they will travel more, which, in turn, contributes to a more “service-oriented economy. “